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Maineiac12

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PostedJul 31, 2013 8:57 pm
Keikain wrote:
Yeah, I do believe those rates. I haven't used more than four slivers to +3 in a long time.

As far as higher enhancement goes, past a certain point without safeguards is pretty much flushing money away. I failed at +8 and spent a good hundred or so gold just trying to get back to +6. And that was with a pretty sizable stockpile of gems (it had gotten to the point I had so many large greens I figured I might as well give it a shot... haha, yeaaah, that was dumb).

I really can't afford to go much higher than +6 or +7 with safeguards still at the very least a couple hundred apiece.  


You really believe those rates. Well good for you because I don't. I've had far too many +1's fail, far too many +2's fail and far far too many +3's fail. It has to be more than luck. Let's face it, 13 failures to get from 2-3?
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Aureola3114

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PostedJul 31, 2013 10:40 pm
On all my alts I +3 my stormchaser with the 3 slivers you get by level 20. I've never failed those.

I am inclined to believe those rates are correct. You may get unlucky sometimes; I once failed 14 times to +4 my helmet (STUPID HELMET).

Maineiac12

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PostedJul 31, 2013 11:31 pm
Aureola3114 wrote:
On all my alts I +3 my stormchaser with the 3 slivers you get by level 20. I've never failed those.

I am inclined to believe those rates are correct. You may get unlucky sometimes; I once failed 14 times to +4 my helmet (STUPID HELMET).  


Then I must be one of the most unluckiest people in the world. And if Aeria's whole purpose is to make a profit, how much do you think I'll spend on items to enhance or other things if I can't even enhance at a 70% rate. If I can't enhance at that rate why would I spend any money at all to try to enhance at a much lower rate?

momommo

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PostedAug 02, 2013 9:00 am
Honestly, I think you're both right. Most of the time I can get the slivers to enhance an item to +3 with somewhere between 3-5 slivers.

But I have also had one repeated run of failures where it took 12. The odds of this happening by sheer random chance at the posted success rates are a maximum of 0.000053%, or 1 in 2 million. If I were the only person that this had ever happened to, I might be inclined to just call it one of those improbable things that stands out in my mind simply BECAUSE it is so improbable--but when a thread like this has multiple people with similar experiences--well. There's just not that many people playing the game, sorry.

There is a very straightforward possibility that would explain it, though. We're assuming that when the success rate is listed at an overall probability of 70%, that this is the odds of success at all times. That's not necessarily true. We know that the game does have mechanisms in it to change the odds of things happening--there are items that show up once in a while that increase drop rates, for example.

So if the game has some code in it that says--as a hypothetical example--"pick one hour in the day at random where the odds are listed+20% and another hour at random where the odds are listed-20%" then the calculation becomes far more difficult and vastly improbable runs of lots of successes/failures in a row become much more likely.

"One second. I think my Commander fainted again." Lachon, Andromeda Server

Taywena

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PostedAug 02, 2013 9:08 am
Have to agree with the ones saying you just had a terrible run of bad luck. I don't think I can remember a single time where it took me more than 4-5 slivers to get to +3. Now I've failed 5-6 times in a row trying to get to +4 from +3, and more than that at +5 and above, but from 0 to +3? Naaaa, never more than 4-5 slivers are needed. You were just unbelievably unlucky. Believe those of us who've done this time and time and time again. +3 is usually very easy to achieve.

Maineiac12

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PostedAug 02, 2013 8:37 pm
Taywena wrote:
Have to agree with the ones saying you just had a terrible run of bad luck. I don't think I can remember a single time where it took me more than 4-5 slivers to get to +3. Now I've failed 5-6 times in a row trying to get to +4 from +3, and more than that at +5 and above, but from 0 to +3? Naaaa, never more than 4-5 slivers are needed. You were just unbelievably unlucky. Believe those of us who've done this time and time and time again. +3 is usually very easy to achieve.  


Then explain to me why I would bother to buy AP so in order to try to enhance anything above a 6? I'd simply be wasting my money. You say it's simply a matter of luck. Consider this though. If I toss a coin it has a 50% chance of coming up heads. If I toss that coin 14 times and I get heads everytime something is wrong and most likely the coin is weighted. As the person above explained the chances of this happening, ie, 14 to get from +2 to +3 is nigh on impossible. There HAS to be something in the program that changes those odds for whatever reason. Now combine my "bad luck" with extreme difficulty in even getting slivers to drop in the first place, the lack of gold drops.....why should I bother anymore. Frankly, I'm about to give up on the game as I have other Aeria games because of the extreme cost and stick to private servers or monthly payment games.

sunday.mourning

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PostedAug 06, 2013 11:04 am
Maineiac12 wrote:
Consider this though. If I toss a coin it has a 50% chance of coming up heads. If I toss that coin 14 times and I get heads everytime something is wrong and most likely the coin is weighted. As the person above explained the chances of this happening, ie, 14 to get from +2 to +3 is nigh on impossible.  


That's not exactly how probability works. Each time the coin is flipped it has a 50% chance of heads or tails and and subsequent flips have no effect on the probability of the outcome. It's why PnP gamers can get a "run of bad rolls" with their "lucky" 20-sided die. Aeria isn't stating that N percent of the attempts will succeed, the math is that each attempt has a percentage chance of success. If there's a 70% chance of upgrading an item, it's still very probable that 14 distinct chances will score in the lower 30%.

That said, it can get really annoying that, even when paying in real money, the odds can still be insanely low--for both enhancements and lucky boxes. Too many MMOs are switching to the pay-to-gamble approach and it's a trend I wish would die off. At the very least, I'd hope for a marked increase in favorable odds for each attempt.

Maineiac12

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PostedAug 06, 2013 5:48 pm
sunday.mourning wrote:
Maineiac12 wrote:
Consider this though. If I toss a coin it has a 50% chance of coming up heads. If I toss that coin 14 times and I get heads everytime something is wrong and most likely the coin is weighted. As the person above explained the chances of this happening, ie, 14 to get from +2 to +3 is nigh on impossible.  


That's not exactly how probability works. Each time the coin is flipped it has a 50% chance of heads or tails and and subsequent flips have no effect on the probability of the outcome. It's why PnP gamers can get a "run of bad rolls" with their "lucky" 20-sided die. Aeria isn't stating that N percent of the attempts will succeed, the math is that each attempt has a percentage chance of success. If there's a 70% chance of upgrading an item, it's still very probable that 14 distinct chances will score in the lower 30%.

That said, it can get really annoying that, even when paying in real money, the odds can still be insanely low--for both enhancements and lucky boxes. Too many MMOs are switching to the pay-to-gamble approach and it's a trend I wish would die off. At the very least, I'd hope for a marked increase in favorable odds for each attempt.  


Actually that is how it works. Yes each time a coin is flipped there is a 50% chance of heads or tails and it's "reset'' each time BUT over a number of tries if the coin consistantly comes up heads, then there is something wrong with the coin, otherwise probability is meaningless. I maintain if there is a 70% chance of success then over 14 tries IF that is in fact the % chance of success then there would have had to have been at least 1 success. If there is a 70% chance of upgrading an item, it's not very probable, in fact I'd suggest it was inprobable and that the success percentages are in fact simply made up.

momommo

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PostedAug 06, 2013 6:40 pm
sunday.mourning wrote:
Maineiac12 wrote:
Consider this though. If I toss a coin it has a 50% chance of coming up heads. If I toss that coin 14 times and I get heads everytime something is wrong and most likely the coin is weighted. As the person above explained the chances of this happening, ie, 14 to get from +2 to +3 is nigh on impossible.  


That's not exactly how probability works. Each time the coin is flipped it has a 50% chance of heads or tails and and subsequent flips have no effect on the probability of the outcome. It's why PnP gamers can get a "run of bad rolls" with their "lucky" 20-sided die. Aeria isn't stating that N percent of the attempts will succeed, the math is that each attempt has a percentage chance of success. If there's a 70% chance of upgrading an item, it's still very probable that 14 distinct chances will score in the lower 30%.
 


Actually, professor, my calculation was based on independence of the coin flips--and you would have known this if you'd gone ahead and done the math instead of glibly describing it as "very probable". The remarkable thing about the run of failures isn't that there are 14 failures, it's that there are 14 failures IN A ROW. If the odds that any given attempt to enhance will fail is 30%, then the odds that any given stretch of 14 attempts in a row will ALL be failures is simply 30% raised to the 14th power. Just open your computer's calculator app and pop the numbers in.

0.3^14 is 0.0000000478, or 1 in 21 million.

So your definition of "very probable" and mine differ considerably.

"One second. I think my Commander fainted again." Lachon, Andromeda Server

sunday.mourning

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PostedAug 06, 2013 8:33 pm
Maineiac12 wrote:
I maintain if there is a 70% chance of success then over 14 tries IF that is in fact the % chance of success then there would have had to have been at least 1 success.  


momommo wrote:
If the odds that any given attempt to enhance will fail is 30%, then the odds that any given stretch of 14 attempts in a row will ALL be failures is simply 30% raised to the 14th power. Just open your computer's calculator app and pop the numbers in.

0.3^14 is 0.0000000478, or 1 in 21 million.

So your definition of "very probable" and mine differ considerably.  


It's the problem of odds versus probability. The odds of failing 14 times in a row are very low, but the probability that the "next try" after the 13th attempt will fail is still 30% because we're discussing independent events that just seem to happen sequentially. Focusing on the idea that one's luck is due after so many tries is what's called the Gambler's Fallacy, because it's playing the odds and disregarding the fact that each event has its own mutually exclusive probability.

...So, OK, I got a bit over-focused on semantics and not the intent of the conversation. I'll admit to that. Smile

However, I don't know how much LivePlex may have tweaked the numbers when converting QB to SB. Or if they're using a "fair coin." And from what I understand, most of the numbers used in the main help thread that lists percentage of success were pulled from QB code, not the translated version. We already know that some graphics were altered, do we know that enhancement and lucky box outcomes weren't also altered? Are we certain the percentages listed in the forums are correct according to Scarlet Blade? I don't even know what the formula they're using to gauge the percentages is--is it (for our 70% example) a random number between 1 and 100 and anything over 30 is considered a success or is the possible pool even larger? If it's the latter, than the percentage given even affects the overall likelihood of multiple "streaks" of success or failure. Is the random number seed based on datetime stamp, as many seeds are? If so, then when failures and the given length of time between attempts also becomes a factor.

For those of you who have played XCom: Enemy Unknown (the latest release), the random number seed is actually generated at the start of the turn, so if you save and make the same attempt in the same order, the exact same sequence of success/fail will happen every time--the game doesn't actually calculate per turn. I'd be curious if SB operates in a similar manner, tasking a number of pre-calculated success/fail ratios long before attempts are even made.

Again, I'd personally prefer it if multiple attempts did factor into the possible success of the next chance. Admittedly, that's for my own selfish reasons--I've spent enough on lucky boxes from the Item Mall and Consignment Shop alike!
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