Maineiac12 wrote: 
I maintain if there is a 70% chance of success then over 14 tries IF that is in fact the % chance of success then there would have had to have been at least 1 success.

momommo wrote: 
If the odds that any given attempt to enhance will fail is 30%, then the odds that any given stretch of 14 attempts in a row will ALL be failures is simply 30% raised to the 14th power. Just open your computer's calculator app and pop the numbers in.
0.3^14 is 0.0000000478, or 1 in 21 million.
So your definition of "very probable" and mine differ considerably.

It's the problem of odds versus probability. The odds of failing 14 times in a row are very low, but the probability that the "next try" after the 13th attempt will fail is still 30% because we're discussing independent events that just seem to happen sequentially. Focusing on the idea that one's luck is due after so many tries is what's called the
Gambler's Fallacy, because it's playing the odds and disregarding the fact that each event has its own mutually exclusive probability.
...So, OK, I got a bit overfocused on semantics and not the intent of the conversation. I'll admit to that.
However, I don't know how much LivePlex may have tweaked the numbers when converting QB to SB. Or if they're using a "fair coin." And from what I understand, most of the numbers used in the main help thread that lists percentage of success were pulled from QB code, not the translated version. We already know that some graphics were altered, do we know that enhancement and lucky box outcomes weren't also altered? Are we certain the percentages listed in the forums are correct according to Scarlet Blade? I don't even know what the formula they're using to gauge the percentages isis it (for our 70% example) a random number between 1 and 100 and anything over 30 is considered a success or is the possible pool even larger? If it's the latter, than the percentage given even affects the overall likelihood of multiple "streaks" of success or failure. Is the random number seed based on datetime stamp, as many seeds are? If so, then
when failures and the given length of time between attempts also becomes a factor.
For those of you who have played XCom: Enemy Unknown (the latest release), the random number seed is actually generated at the start of the turn, so if you save and make the same attempt in the same order, the exact same sequence of success/fail will happen every timethe game doesn't actually calculate per turn. I'd be curious if SB operates in a similar manner, tasking a number of precalculated success/fail ratios long before attempts are even made.
Again, I'd personally prefer it if multiple attempts did factor into the possible success of the next chance. Admittedly, that's for my own selfish reasonsI've spent enough on lucky boxes from the Item Mall and Consignment Shop alike!