I'll place up a wager. If it turns out the Teddy Replicube is indeed a gatcha box, and doesn't soley give out one of 6 costumes:
On Andromeda, I'll give you 100G no questions asked, if you can prove to me you got a Teddy from a replicube derived from this event.
Read what I said carefully.
2) Has to be a case where other prizes are offered than just a teddy from the replicube
3) Have to win the Teddy.
In my opinion, seasonal events are only helpful to a game, if they actually give people something they want. I've had previous seasonal events which low odds of success, and they did more to demoralize players than entire their gameplay. The last Shaiya Seasonal event not only paid out every time a powerful enhancement; it also paid them out in multiples sometimes, and respawned every 5-30 minutes. Result: Players camped them like no tomorrow, because they knew the offer was limited.
If the odds were low, those players would have just went about their business, and ignored the seasonal event.