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JoshexDirad

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PostedApr 18, 2013 10:18 pm

Loot box chances

% chance
can anyone tell me what percent chance all the SB loot box items drop at?

especially the lingerie unsealer I mean how often is it set to drop? 1 out of 1,000,000? (a 0.0001% chance)
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cardinalflash

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PostedApr 18, 2013 11:11 pm

Re: Loot box chances

% chance
JoshexDirad wrote:
can anyone tell me what percent chance all the SB loot box items drop at?

especially the lingerie unsealer I mean how often is it set to drop? 1 out of 1,000,000? (a 0.0001% chance)  



It works like this. They won't tell us the chance of it dropping but it will be very small. Here are a couple of examples calculated.

Assume chance to get desirable item from 1 lucky box = 1%.
To have a 50/50 chance of getting a desirable item you will have to open approximately 68 lucky boxes.

Assume chance to get desirable item from 1 lucky box = 0.5%.
To have a 50/50 chance of getting a desirable item you will have to open approximately 138 lucky boxes.

Bear in mind that this is only a 50/50 chance, so you could open hundreds of lucky boxes and still not get the desired item.

marcLonggun

Legendary Founder: Scarlet Blade
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PostedApr 18, 2013 11:18 pm

Re: Loot box chances

% chance
cardinalflash wrote:


It works like this. They won't tell us the chance of it dropping but it will be very small. Here are a couple of examples calculated.

Assume chance to get desirable item from 1 lucky box = 1%.
To have a 50/50 chance of getting a desirable item you will have to open approximately 68 lucky boxes.

Assume chance to get desirable item from 1 lucky box = 0.5%.
To have a 50/50 chance of getting a desirable item you will have to open approximately 138 lucky boxes.

Bear in mind that this is only a 50/50 chance, so you could open hundreds of lucky boxes and still not get the desired item.  


im sorry but it does not work that way, you are assuming your luck increases as you open more boxes when in reality it does not

sadly even flipping a coin (50/50 of heads or tails) can land heads up 99 out of 100 times as each time you flip you still only have 50/50 chance of getting tails, the system (in this case the flip) is not calcuating an increased chance of you to get tails just cuz you failed 99 times before it is neutral and will always have the same chances

if the boxes do haev 1% chance, you can open as many as you want and still only have a 1% chance per box

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animalpatH

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PostedApr 18, 2013 11:38 pm
ok i will make it easy for you guys..... to get what you want is not easy... to get the desirable item you have 0.1% chance.... to get crap you have 99.9% chance..... as easy as that..

dishana

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PostedApr 19, 2013 12:45 am

Re: Loot box chances

% chance
marcLonggun wrote:
cardinalflash wrote:


It works like this. They won't tell us the chance of it dropping but it will be very small. Here are a couple of examples calculated.

Assume chance to get desirable item from 1 lucky box = 1%.
To have a 50/50 chance of getting a desirable item you will have to open approximately 68 lucky boxes.

Assume chance to get desirable item from 1 lucky box = 0.5%.
To have a 50/50 chance of getting a desirable item you will have to open approximately 138 lucky boxes.

Bear in mind that this is only a 50/50 chance, so you could open hundreds of lucky boxes and still not get the desired item.  


im sorry but it does not work that way, you are assuming your luck increases as you open more boxes when in reality it does not

sadly even flipping a coin (50/50 of heads or tails) can land heads up 99 out of 100 times as each time you flip you still only have 50/50 chance of getting tails, the system (in this case the flip) is not calcuating an increased chance of you to get tails just cuz you failed 99 times before it is neutral and will always have the same chances

if the boxes do haev 1% chance, you can open as many as you want and still only have a 1% chance per box  


Sorry, but you have no idea how statistics work and cardinalflash got it exactly right. He is not assuming at all that chances increase.

In your example the actual chance of getting heads 99 times in a row is 1 in 2^99, so by doing 100 coinflips you are almost guaranteed at least one tailflip. Of course the chance of the next coinflip is 50%.

It's the same with lucky boxes. Example: If your chance to NOT get the desired item is 99% and if you buy 100 lucky boxes, the chance that you get your desired item at least once from all of these boxes is about 36,6% (= 1 - 0,99^100).
This is also solvable the other way around (e.g. you want to know how many boxes you need to have a 50% chance to get the item), which is how cardinalflash got those numbers.

You can not make predictions based upon previous rolls, BUT you can make predictions on the outcome of a series. Don't get this confused.

Deathmetal34

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Deathmetal34
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PostedApr 19, 2013 1:55 am
Okay this was a useless post if it was easy to get all the good items where will all the excited be?

The reason they do this is for you to wonder every time when you are going to open the loot box if you will get the item or not.

My personal opinion is that this is an effective way of raising excitement in people but can also throw them down

dishana

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Germany
PostedApr 19, 2013 2:10 am
I don't really see excitement in throwing away my money for an unknown likelyhood of getting something. They are keeping people in the dark on purpose to make them spend more money.

JoshexDirad

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PostedApr 19, 2013 11:22 am
dishana wrote:
I don't really see excitement in throwing away my money for an unknown likelyhood of getting something. They are keeping people in the dark on purpose to make them spend more money.  


the loot box is free. it's in aeria ignite.

however it would be nice to get additional rolls of the loot box for 1ap rather than being forced to wait 24 hours.

I suppose we have to do the calculations ourselves, what we are looking at is called:

a Drop Pool

in this pool there is a 100% +100% chance of getting an item, there are 3 different tiers of item, to me I recognize these as 'top right -low' (2 of hearts to stinger), 'bottom right - medium' (viscous fluid to jack of clubs), 'bottom left - high' ( the hypovials), 'top left - superior' ( EXP boost to HP regen pet data chip)

now the loot box will first make a calculation from the 4 sections but each section has a certain percent. 100% split exactly in 4 is 25%, but I'm certian there are regions above 25% and others below. so we need to assess an constant increment:

to assess equally one has to start with the obvious notion that the low and normal quality drops are above 25% and the others are below probably by an increment of +1/2 for the lower qualities and -1/2 of 1/2 for the high quality and then the last one gets the remainder:

low quality top right: 25+12=37+6= 43%
normal quality bottom right: 25+12= 37%
80% even so far
rare quality bottom left: 25-6= 19-1=18%
very rare quality top left: 2%

now for the next 100%, once you have earned any one of the drop pools now the loot box must decide which item in that drop box that you get! and it may be an even chance, but it could be similar to the chance of the drop pools based on the rarity of the item.

so you have a 2% chance to get one of the very rare items and from that 2% you then have to do= 2% =100% if the very rare items were divided evenly it would be a 33.3% chance however I'm willing to guess it's not even,

EXP most rare: 33-16=16% (rounded)
Lingerie unsealer medium: 33%
pet data chip low: 33+18= 51%

so the overall total chance of getting the pet data chip is 1.02%
the over all chance of getting the lingerie unsealer is 2 / 100= 0.02x 33= 0.66%
the over all chance of getting the EXP booster is 0.02x16= 0.32%

yoruneko101

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PostedApr 19, 2013 3:42 pm
I look forward to my daily sticky mucus, it's quite hilarious opening that everyday.

Stormcougar2

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PostedMay 15, 2013 12:18 pm
I've been waiting to play game, since open beta started. I got a Lingerie during closed beta and wasn't going to start playing till I got the unsealer...still not playing. I've opened the loot box every day.
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