I don't really see excitement in throwing away my money for an unknown likelyhood of getting something. They are keeping people in the dark on purpose to make them spend more money.
the loot box is free. it's in aeria ignite.
however it would be nice to get additional rolls of the loot box for 1ap rather than being forced to wait 24 hours.
I suppose we have to do the calculations ourselves, what we are looking at is called:
a Drop Pool
in this pool there is a 100% +100% chance of getting an item, there are 3 different tiers of item, to me I recognize these as 'top right -low' (2 of hearts to stinger), 'bottom right - medium' (viscous fluid to jack of clubs), 'bottom left - high' ( the hypovials), 'top left - superior' ( EXP boost to HP regen pet data chip)
now the loot box will first make a calculation from the 4 sections but each section has a certain percent. 100% split exactly in 4 is 25%, but I'm certian there are regions above 25% and others below. so we need to assess an constant increment:
to assess equally one has to start with the obvious notion that the low and normal quality drops are above 25% and the others are below probably by an increment of +1/2 for the lower qualities and -1/2 of 1/2 for the high quality and then the last one gets the remainder:
low quality top right: 25+12=37+6= 43%
normal quality bottom right: 25+12= 37%
80% even so far
rare quality bottom left: 25-6= 19-1=18%
very rare quality top left: 2%
now for the next 100%, once you have earned any one of the drop pools now the loot box must decide which item in that drop box that you get! and it may be an even chance, but it could be similar to the chance of the drop pools based on the rarity of the item.
so you have a 2% chance to get one of the very rare items and from that 2% you then have to do= 2% =100% if the very rare items were divided evenly it would be a 33.3% chance however I'm willing to guess it's not even,
EXP most rare: 33-16=16% (rounded)
Lingerie unsealer medium: 33%
pet data chip low: 33+18= 51%
so the overall total chance of getting the pet data chip is 1.02%
the over all chance of getting the lingerie unsealer is 2 / 100= 0.02x 33= 0.66%
the over all chance of getting the EXP booster is 0.02x16= 0.32%