There's no given success rate for any weapon or armor whether it be white, green, orange or yellow. Make gathering and crafting, a hobby you do while talking, grinding anything else. Makes it much easier!
Is it possible to craft without SKB? Ofcourse! All my 1 hander sword have been 'forced' (made without SKB) using my Guardian sprite. Excepting the 70 leech sword which I bought outright.
However I have had varying rates of success with other weapons, and unfortunately in my latest case, 'Siropas Greatsword of Destruction' I have given up trying altogether since because I failed so much my sprite is nearly lvl 65 sword crafting (started at 60). I made about 8 oranges, all of which ended up getting destroyed by my sprite.
So crafting varies, and in most situations you can craft the yellow for much cheaper than using an SKB. This assumes you can obtain most of the mats by yourself or wait till they are relatively cheap.
Here are my prices that each yellow sword has taken me to craft:
- 50 1 hander: 300g
- 50 Bow : 240g
- 50 2 hander: 470g (used bliss)
- 50 1 hander (cause I had lots of leftover mats~for my sprite): 215g
- 60 1 hander: 978g (expensive mats, used bliss)
- 60 2 hander: 3000g+ Didn't make it in the end. Loads of wasted bliss
- 65 Relic for AM/DMON: 2700g (very nice since mats are readily available, bliss)
Here is also an idea to remember;
Once you start getting yellows that are tradable (65+), consider making any yellows you can based on how cheap the mats are available. I sold my 65 relic and used the money to buy the 70 1 hander sword.