Concerns about increasing sales of safety stones:
- Increase in Sales:
Safety stones are essential to the growth of the players. Thus it will always be in demand, regardless of how many new or old players you have. These stones will take priority over any wings or costume on the market, as its effect are not purely cosmetic. Also, this does not hurt the market of costume and primes, as players will return to buying cosmetic items when they become stronger.
- Increase in costumes and eden crystal prices:
This is perhaps the only negative result due to a possible increase in safety stones. If safety stones ends up in the altar, eden crystal during those times will be more expensive, because the rewards are so much greater. Also, costumes are most likely going to fluctuate a lot. Players who are trying to get strong won't buy primes, because they need money for safety stones. But at the same time, players who are already strong will pay more for primes they want, because they have nothing left to spend on.
These two points contradict each other. You could have been more clear that the true point of the first is that long term
prices will remain, more or less the same. And the point of the second is that short term
prices will fluctuate wildly.
Other than that, well written and +1
Thank you for pointing out this point. You are right... to some degree. In the short run there will be large fluctuation in prices of primes, but prices overall for costumes and EC will increase in the long run, until other factors change it otherwise.
Prices of EC will increase because supply of costumes is swallowed up by increase in demand of safety stones, meaning players choose stones over costumes to sell/use. However as the game progress and players demand of safety stones isn't as high due to availability, the increase in demand for costumes will increase supply. However, eden crystal prices will remain higher than before as players grow and become stronger, thus obtaining more means to make money.
But haven't you neglected the impact that increase prices of EC pushes out some players, because they can't afford to play it? Yes that is true, increase of price in EC will push out some players, but at the same time the increase in price also represents increase in value, thus increasing the pool of "rich" players. This increase in value will entice more players of bigger cash pool to play, as the returns to value is higher than before. Meaning the amount of costumes and EC bought and sold will still be the same, just at a higher price.
Below I provided an in depth explanation:
Lets start with who are the players in the market:
Those who sell EC for gold, having no intention of gambling with EC
: Those who buy EC with gold, having the intention to get something from altar to re-sell or use the goods.
Those who are risk-adverse (don't like to gamble) and want to buy altar goodies from Gamblers, having the intention to use or re-sell the goods.
Given that safety stones are always in demand due to them being an essential part of players' growth,if safety stones were put into the altar, especially safety stones of different variant at a lower row (say a UHSS on the 5th row or 6th row), prices of eden crystal will increase. This may also convert Hawks/EC sellers to become gamblers, as the value of safety stones may entice them to gamble a little. Thus increasing demand for EC and reducing the amount available in the market.
Keeping with that thought process, eden crystals will eventually raise in price, because players will anticipate and hold eden crystal to sell on a good altar. Prices would raise not only because players hold onto eden crystal, thus decreasing supply, but would also raise because the expected value of eden crystal will increase due to the anticipation of a safety stone altar. While prices may eventually flatten out to a new market equilibrium
, prices of eden crystal will ONLY drop down in the long run IF the player base increases to increase supply (in a free market, competition drives prices down) OR there is a change in game mechanic, that takes away player income(say 1p gets removed or something dynamic like that).
The price increase of eden crystals will drive up prime prices in the altar, because the eden crystal cost more. Players will charge more for primes, because the cost to profit ratio has now decreased. Say the average prime costume on altar takes around 60 eden crystal to obtain. Prior to the patch (where players income increase due to better equip, 1p, and etc), eden crystals were 65g and sold primes for 2k. This generates a negative profit of -1.9k (which is true, altar is a loss like 90% of the time). Now lets look at it post patch, eden crystal is now 110g each. If players sold primes for the same price at 2k, their profit would now be -4.6k. However this is not the case, primes (costumes) now sell for an average of 4k. While this doesn't show that players are profit maximizing, it does show that players are aware of the market and its changes.
Lastly, players who are already strong and risk-adversed (and have nothing to do with their money) will contribute to the price of prime costume (sometime). While prime costumes like jailbird or alchemist suit may not change in prices much (due to their appearance) primes such as mysterious hoodies will increase in price with the increasing growth of players every week. Blunty put: Elites have the power to increase price of primes at anytime, which sometimes increase the value of EC/primes dramatically.
Safety stones in altar increases EC prices > Players hold EC and sell at higher price for the next altar with safety stones/good primes + Hawks/EC sellers turn to gamblers to further decrease supply and increase demand of EC > Combination of higher expected value/reduced in supply of EC DRIVES UP EC prices > Primes are thus sold for more as players adjust to the increases in price of EC > Primes raising in value further increases the appreciation of EC > Driving up EC prices again
^this process will continue to happen until a market equilibrium is reached. Where sellers will sell at a price that offers them the most returns WITHOUT driving away buyers to other sellers.
So you are probably wondering why wouldn't safety stones increase in prices due eden crystal increasing in prices? The current price inflation of special safety stones is a result of limited supply rather than increase in eden crystal prices. We established this point in the first post, where an increase in supply will reduce prices of safety stones at all level. If we look back at the picture in Fig 3, this will be represented by the supply curve shifting out, decreasing prices and increasing quantity. While the increase in price of EC may eventually drive away some of the hawks and EC sellers from gambling, the increase in supply of safety stones effect the prices much more than the increase in price of eden crystal.
Intuitively speaking: Yes EC may cost 150g now, but a CSS is worth 10k and if you are one of those lucky people that can roll and get it with in 40 or 50 ec, thats profit. If everyone thinks that way, supply will eventually increase where sellers can undercut each other, i.e. 1 guy sells for 10k, but the next guy says 9k. Buyers recognize this and buys for 9k. Sellers will sell at 9k b/c there is still profit to be made.
So long run and short run prices of EC will increase (by a bit) as a result of an altar that has safety stones, especially if special safety stones are put on a lower tier. Prices will only drop if demand for safety stones decrease or the an increase in supply of eden crystal via more AP buyers drawn from a bigger player base.
So in a very long winded way of explaining things... it doesn't hurt the market of primes and crystal, it hurts the people who wants to buy cheap primes and cheap EC.
That is perhaps the only negative I see (from a consumers standpoint), that I need to spend more for EC and primes now. But the amount of primes and EC sold will be the same, possibility even more than before.