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Kinetik07

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Kinetik07
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PostedDec 13, 2012 9:51 am

Don't buy 8 crit explosion stones from AH

they are worth 1.3k
I'm sure by now, nearly everybody on server Poncho has noticed the increase in price of explosion stones(the 8 crit dmg ones). They used to be 700-800 and are now 2-3k. Not to put the blame on anyone, but they were much cheaper on Bodor before the merge >_> I'm just here to say

The success rate of Ultimate Explosion Resonance Stone(Variant) is 2%
tell your friends

I rolled 499 clays and got 10 explosion stones.
video proof(it's pretty long, but it's all there):
EDIT: I should probably have stated that you shouldn't watch the whole thing expecting anything. It's boring. I just needed evidence that I actually rolled all that clay and recorded it.
part1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lvxKL4M9_Ug
part2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mD4DI1k1YDA
part3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dm78BMLV0Y
part4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZujQPjuWpM
part5 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbrxpBGX1MY
part6 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Z3rwgjThqE
If you think that's just luck, you're wrong. That's the law of large numbers. Getting 1 stones in 20 clays is luck, getting 10 in about 500 is rate. To further prove my point, I will be trying another 500 a week from now(when I get more gold).

Plus, why are explosion stones priced so much when anyone can get one free oclay daily for each of their characters above lvl 15? All you have to do is visit anyone's sprite island and talk to their divination sprite.

In the video, during the second stack of 100 clays, I got 0 stones, so don't say I didn't have any bad luck. For some reason, I thought it would be a good idea to stop for six Vit +3 stones and not stop for any vit +6 stones because I thought they were ice variants... If you're wondering why I only tested 499 clays, I had five extra and didn't count the six vit+3 stones because they were in r1. So, 505 - 6 = 499

Also, using 50 clays doesn't guarantee getting a stone, but you have a 63.58% chance of getting at least one.
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tarano12

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tarano12
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somewhere in fairy tail. United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 11:43 am
Finally someone who understands. something must be done!
and your not alone man i used 200 clays and got just 1 stone JUST 1 WTF IS THAT WTF WTF WTF IS THAT!!!!!! i want my money back.

Kinetik07

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Kinetik07
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610
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PostedDec 13, 2012 11:56 am
tarano12 wrote:
Finally someone who understands. something must be done!
and your not alone man i used 200 clays and got just 1 stone JUST 1 WTF IS THAT WTF WTF WTF IS THAT!!!!!! i want my money back.  


I don't expect anything to change, just wanted to let ppl know that if they're buying it for 2.6k, they are getting ripped off.

2% is 1/50 and the cost of clay is 26g. If you multiply it by the reciprocal you get 26g x 50 = 1300g

That's not including the free oclay you can get from sprite islands daily.

minuzaki

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08 Mar 2010
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Hell. Denmark
PostedDec 13, 2012 12:16 pm
Unfortunately, while I agree with you, I feel as though the inflation of crit stones wont go down until after Christmas maybe. When the flow of AP is at a surplus, and everyone has money. Is it a shame? Yes. I mean seriously, it's sad that I can actually go buy 40 pieces of O-Clay and probably farm 10-15 Variant stones. What I want to know is why Growth stones are so cheap. I mean, same percent of critical damage, different powers. I could log on right now and find a 8% to Magic Critcal Damage Variant for 300-700g. Yet Physical Damage stones are 2-3k for what purpose? Truthfully I feel as though people are just too lazy to go farm stones. It isn't that hard people. O-Clay is what, 32g for someone without cap fame? It doesn't help that the ones doing these inflations are probably people within their 70-80's (I'd say 90's, but they have their hands full scrambling to get their 90 yellows fortified, slotted, and stoned.) who SHOULD have cap fame. To be honest, Crit Damage stones on Bodor were STILL OP at 1.3k. If anything they're worth 600-800g at the most. This inflation is simply a matter of greed/selfishness. It is truly unfortunate.

has moved to aeriagames.com/user/Ayvii

AKFrost

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Berkeley United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 12:22 pm   Last edited by AKFrost on Dec 13, 2012 12:24 pm. Edited 2 times in total
minuzaki wrote:
What I want to know is why Growth stones are so cheap. I mean, same percent of critical damage, different powers. I could log on right now and find a 8% to Magic Critcal Damage Variant for 300-700g. Yet Physical Damage stones are 2-3k for what purpose?  


There's less demand for Growth variants. There are six classes that use Explosion vs up to 4 that uses Growth (I've seen more clerics/sages spec physical than magic). Magic classes also require less weaponry, especially Wizard/Necro as they're practically limited to only two per five levels, and that's only IF both are worth using (spoiler: they usually aren't).

 
Crit Damage stones on Bodor were STILL OP at 1.3k. If anything they're worth 600-800g at the most. This inflation is simply a matter of greed/selfishness. It is truly unfortunate.  


If TC is correct and 2% is the rate, then they'd be selling at a loss at less than 1.3k. I fail to see how it's greed if they aren't even making any profit at all.

Towkay

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Frozen Throne Singapore
PostedDec 13, 2012 12:23 pm
Willing buyer, willing seller. So in other words, there is no wrong selling a stone at 100k if people buy even if it's value is 1g.

tarano12

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tarano12
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PostedDec 13, 2012 12:46 pm
i have 3 char's a lv81 prophet,80 mystic,67 darkstalker and i fail to see how making money is easy. gf has gone money mad all the company care's about is making money they don't listen to what the players want they don't care because they aren't the one's playing the game as long as they get money. also i would use 5% critical damage stones if i didn't care about being a noob. btw the problem here is the new alchemy if you haven't noticed. 8% stones only appear in alchemy once a week and are extremely hard to get. <--bad combination if your gonna put them in alchemy every once a week then at least increase the freaking rate.

dx0520

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dx0520
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Morphine, Dreamland United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 12:49 pm
2% only applies in a large sample size such as yours.

Unfortunately, most don't roll 499 to achieve that outcome (to acquire the same amount of stones), as that would cost 12974 gold at best.

Not to mention those that do acquire said stones may use them instead of selling them, making the availability in the open market even more scarce.

Because not everyone has 12k, nor the time, and demand is high, it's only natural that whatever is in the open market is driven up in price. Tack on desire for profit, and the price is further inflated. Everyone wants profit for the time they spent rolling clay, not to mention anything in AH is further inflated because everyone wants the buyer to pay for the taxes.

The economy works. GF is a very simplistic model of supply and demand, the prices reflect well.

Edit: Also 2% is still a chance, not a guarantee. I'd have to roll a large sample size to get close to 2%, which would cost 12974 gold (for 499 oclays).

Whereas if I just buy with 3k, I can get two stones at your price, which is basically saying with 3k I can guarantee myself 2%...

...why should anyone roll oclays then if at less than 1/3 the gold I can guarantee even money exchanged on the 2% probability, instead of taking a risk using 12k in gold, which most people don't have nor have the time.

Kinetik07

Rank 2
Kinetik07
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PostedDec 13, 2012 1:30 pm
dx0520 wrote:
2% only applies in a large sample size such as yours.
2% chance applies to all sample sizes, it's just that the larger sample size shows a closer representation to the true chance. The chance doesn't change to 1% if you just use 100, it's still 2%.

Unfortunately, most don't roll 499 to achieve that outcome (to acquire the same amount of stones), as that would cost 12974 gold at best. So if I've only got 3k gold, I only have 115 oclays, even though probability is the same, the likelihood of me acquiring the same amount of those stones as you is unlikely.
If the chance of getting at least 1 stone in 50 clays is 63%, I wouldn't call that unlikely. Though it's true that the stones aren't always fairly distributed because the game uses a random function rather than hand out a stone every 50 uses of oclay. I did get 2 on my first 100 stack, chances are you would too.

At 2% I'd only acquire 1 stone, but at your price, with 3k I can buy 2. So why would anyone roll oclays then?
No one knows how many stones will be produced from 115 clays until they use it, you can't just assume you'll only get 1. Also, the price shouldn't be 1.3k, I simply said that it's worth 1.3k, rollers should profit a bit, but they shouldn't charge double what they spent.

Not to mention those that do acquire said stones may use them instead of selling them, making the availability in the open market even more scarce.
Likewise, them using the stones lowers the demand because they don't need it anymore

Because not everyone has 12k, nor the time, and demand is high, it's only natural that whatever is in the open market is driven up in price.
You'd only buy 13k worth of oclays if you want 10 stones, which much better than spending 26k for 10 in AH. Also, although the video is long and tedious, I only spent 15 minutes to use 100 clay. It would be faster with three sprites, so I can't imagine time is a problem.

The economy works. GF is a very simplistic model of supply and demand, the prices reflect well.

Edit: Also 2% is still a chance, not a guarantee. I'd have to roll a large sample size to get close to 2%, which would cost 12974 gold (for 499 oclays).

Whereas if I just buy with 3k, I can get two stones at your price, which is basically saying with 3k I can guarantee myself 2%...

...why should anyone roll oclays then if at less than 1/3 the gold I can guarantee even money exchanged on the 2% probability, instead of taking a risk using 12k in gold, which most people don't have nor have the time.

Don't forget that there's a chance to get 3 or even 115 stones from 115 clay, or even vit+6 stones.
 

AKFrost

Rank 5
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Berkeley United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 1:52 pm
The economy is not just probability, but rather game theory, and human rationality, which doesn't always comprehend probability right. A study showed that people were willing to pay $7 to avoid a 1% chance of being painfully shocked, but only up to 20$ for a 99% chance of shocked.

For your buyer, our target is one stone. At 2%, assuming we roll 50 clays, we have a 36.41% chance of not getting a stone. However, this is where the gambler's fallacy comes in. If you roll another 50 clays, there is still a 36.41% chance of you not getting a stone. At this point, you would have spent 2.6k on nothing, and this has a 1 in 9 chance of happening.

On the other hand, suppose a stone on the open market is 2.6k. Your game square becomes:

Pay 2.6k, and get what you want.
Pay 2.6k into clays, ~ 1/9 chance of not getting what you want, ~8/9 chance of getting what you want.

Is that security worth 1.3k? your call. Remember, even if you do have a 4/9th chance of getting extra, the natural aversion to risk in all humans will not weigh it favorably against the 1/9th chance of getting nothing. People were only willing to pay about 1.5x more for a 99x more likely event. A 4x more likely even is hardly going to break even.
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