For starters, I'll begin with a few basic numbers and statistics on the 4 different types of capsules available.
Every capsule in the Euro jackpot has a random amount of euros. It also contains various 1 day items.
The 100 AP jackpot contains amounts of 1,500 - 2,000 - 2,500 - 3,000 - 5,000 - 10,000 - 20,000 - 25,000 - 50,000 - 100,000 - 150,000 - 200,000 - 500,000, to name a few.
For starters, I'll start by saying that 1USD (100 AP) should yield 3,750 euros of total net gain to make a reasonable profit.
The most common Euro Jackpot quantities that you'll come across are the 1.5k, 2k, and 2.5k capsules with the occasional 3k and 5k and the rare 10k. This means that with any one capsule, it's very likely that you'll get a negative gain.
The 200AP jackpot contains amounts similar to the 100AP jackpot except with a slightly greater chance of getting higher numbers and the 1 mil euros as the final prize. Most capsules in this jackpot will yield 1.5k, 2k, 2.5k, 3k, and 5k with the occasional 10k or 15k. That means you are almost garunteed a negative profit by buying these caps.
But what about the final prize - the half mil or the 1 mil euros? What's the chance of getting that?
The chances are pretty complicated. It depends on a lot of factors ESPECIALLY including the time the last jackpot was won. Why? Because the Euro jackpot is simply a 10000/10000 capsule without the number displayed. When you purchase one capsule, it could have been at 9847/10000 or at 492/10000. Remember, the winning jackpot is a random number between 1 and 10000, so on average 5000 capsules will be purchased between each win. However, if you buy 1 capsule at a random time, your chances to win the jackpot are around .02%.
For 130 AP, you could have a shot at getting a gun 2 weeks early. Is it worth it? Absolutely not.
So what are the chances on this guy? The PR caps are simply a 200/200 capsule without the current number displayed. This means that on average, 100 capsules are purchased between each win. This also means that on average, you would have to buy 100 capsules for a fair chance at getting the prerelease gun.
Your chances on the 200 capsules is simply the number of caps you purchase over the number currently available. If you buy 10 at 100, your chance is 10%. However, once you start going down to 50, you're more likely buying at a much lower number by the time everyone's signals start reaching the servers. Timing is crucial with these caps, but don't be discouraged if you fail because that happens to everyone.
Indivs are just a 200/200 capsule without the number displayed. DO NOT BUY AT ALL.
Your chance of winning is the number of caps you buy over the number of capsules available.
Would I rather buy from the 99s and the 149s or the 249s and the 300s? I would honestly buy 10 of the 300s rather than 5 of the 149s (although chances are technically the same, the 300 caps go slightly slower) but I'd rather buy 5 of the 99 caps over 10 of the 249 caps simply because there's a higher chance on the 99s. However, the 249s do go slightly slowly at times and it is possible to buy 5 at very low numbers on the 249s.
Refer to this post
if you want to get to the nitty-gritty of all the probability math.