whats up with advanced transmute - it says 20% chance for transmutting to a purple item and I try about 12 times without success - tell me if I'm actually that unlucky because not hitting a 20% chance 12 times in a row is = 0.2^12 = .0000004 % chance. so if I was just that unlucky to hit a 1 in a million chance of failing 12 times in a row let me know and I'll buy a lottery ticket, otherwise that's false info and it costs gold to transmute so I hope you can see why I'd be ticked off.

You are not alone, most people have complained about that in-game as well. Ask around, you'll find that the posted percentages are way off for all of us.

Thankfully, the friend that turned me on to this game told me how bad those were before I ever had my gold stolen. Sorry for your loss.

20% chance isn't 1 in 5. It doesn't guarantee that you will get it in 5 tries. It means that each time you click it there is a 20% chance no higher, no lower. Trying 2 times isn't 40% chance it's still 20% chance for success 80% chance for failure. If you roll a 10 sided die it's the same principle. 12 Rolls yes there's a chance to get a 1 or a 2, but there's a larger chance each time to get a 3-10.

1-(1-3/100)^*tries* for red items
1-(1-10/100)^*tries* for orange items
1-(1-20/100)^*tries* for purple items
etc for success chance if under a completely random system the chance that you might be success at it.

So basically, there is a 6.9% chance to follow in Magi's footsteps.

The probability of losing is .8 on each occurrence.

0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8*0.8 = .0687

With gambling, it is usually smart to look at your chances of losing your investment rather than identifying the potential gains. There is nearly a 7% chance that you are throwing 12 gold away.

Advanced Transmutation of an Orange through 12 occurrences, there is a 28% chance that you are throwing 60 gold away.

Advanced Transmutation of a Red through 12 occurrences, there is a 69% chance that you are throwing 120 gold away.

You have to be okay with trashing the gold if you're going to gamble with it.

But don't forget that Gem transmutation is a little bit better in each case than for Equipment.

Edit: typo in the Red equation, corrected to be 120 gold versus 150. NumPad jumped right up and hit me officer.