Some people let their worries get ahead of them and want to be able to ensure something will come out of their actions.
Statistical reasoning states that we would slap the 50% button for an average of $50,000,000 gain which is tremendous in comparison to $1,000,000. Therefore, by pressing the $1,000,000 button, we incur an opportunity cost of $49,000,000; in other words, it costs us $49,000,000 to press the $1,000,000 button.
In the case that you lose, there is no reason to regret losing since pressing the button was more profitable from the past standpoint. If it is no longer profitable now that you see it from the present standpoint, there's no reason to fret over the sunk cost of $1,000,000.
I would slap the 50% chance button. Pressing the mil button comes with an opportunity cost of $49,000,000, whereas pressing the 50% chance button only has a 50% chance of incurring a sunk cost of $1,000,000.
That having been said, please keep AVA general discussion AVA-related