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Kinetik07

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Kinetik07
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04 Feb 2010
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663
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United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 2:28 pm
I hadn't considered human rationality over logic... can't argue with that.

It's like the lottery, lol

I addressed the gambler's fallacy, but it works both ways, you might get more than what you needed.

You are probably right, in that the correct price is double what it's worth, but perhaps letting more people know would get more people to roll oclays and naturally lower the price, which was my intention.

cowardice is expensive.
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dx0520

Rank 3
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22 Feb 2010
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1435
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France
PostedDec 13, 2012 2:42 pm
Also, how many times has one looked and saw the price of one stone, let's say 3k, and figured screw that I'll buy some oclays and try it out...

...of course, without realizing, after trying a few, or rather a lot, and still failing, one has the tendency to just end up buying the stone, especially in a game like this where the impatience to optimize your character is a common thing.

The next time that same person wants to get more stones, they would think "oh I've learned my lesson, I'll just buy straight instead of rolling again", but maybe I'll try to negotiate a bit lower...and this is where the price gets fixed in.

If let's say the person at the beginning didn't fail as badly, then they would have gotten their stone. In fact, they may get more than 1 stone. In that case, they'll think "hmm this idiot is selling for 3k, I got mine so easily, I think I'll just undercut him and earn some profit"...

...in short, this refines over and over across thousands of players, and what you find is the price of the stone then is a true reflection and representation of demand, supply, probability, player habits, and human nature.

AKFrost

Rank 5
AKFrost
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Berkeley United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 2:45 pm
Kinetik07 wrote:
I hadn't considered human rationality over logic... can't argue with that.

It's like the lottery, lol

I addressed the gambler's fallacy, but it works both ways, you might get more than what you needed.

You are probably right, in that the correct price is double what it's worth, but perhaps letting more people know would get more people to roll oclays and naturally lower the price, which was my intention.

cowardice is expensive.  


Well, if enough players see this post, you might get a slight reduction in price.

A lot of people who buy stones now are probably operating on the assumption that the probability is much lower than 2%.

ShrimpTeriyaki

Rank 1
ShrimpTeriyaki
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24 Mar 2011
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234
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Cloud 9 United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 3:11 pm
i'll share something based on experience.

if i remember correctly, it was the 3rd week of November when i bought a stack of o clays to get this said *explosion stones*. i rolled all of it and got a handful of vit+3 stones, about 5-6 explosion stones, 1 vit+6 stone. that's a huge profit if i wanted to sell all of it. with this return i thought it's a good idea to buy a stack of o clays every week and make profit out of it.

the following week, i bought another stack of o clays to get said *explosion stones* thinking that i would get atleast close to what i got the week before. i rolled all of it and to my surpise i only got 2 vit+3 stones, 2 explosion stones and a mind explosion stone. its still not bad but considering what i got the week before its not as much profit or might be just break even.

with the return i've had, it can be 2 things; 1. i might get more explosion stones like the first week i rolled clays and 2. the chances of getting it might get lower and instead of even breaking even i might just waste 5.2k worth of gold.

its a gamble, but for players that doesn't have the gold to spare it can be disheartening. think about doing dungeons over and over and end up with nothing instead of atleast something. the idea is good overall but it can result to a loss instead of a gain.

why so serious?

ShrimpTeriyaki

Rank 1
ShrimpTeriyaki
Joined
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Posts
234
Location
Cloud 9 United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 3:16 pm
tarano12 wrote:
i have 3 char's a lv81 prophet,80 mystic,67 darkstalker and i fail to see how making money is easy. gf has gone money mad all the company care's about is making money they don't listen to what the players want they don't care because they aren't the one's playing the game as long as they get money. also i would use 5% critical damage stones if i didn't care about being a noob. btw the problem here is the new alchemy if you haven't noticed. 8% stones only appear in alchemy once a week and are extremely hard to get. <--bad combination if your gonna put them in alchemy every once a week then at least increase the freaking rate.  


i feel your pain, i have friends who have a hard time making gold but looking at your chars. you have FT for 2 characters, BFR and ACV. if you cant find a party for all those dungeons you can sell PT leech. if you still cant do that, try selling ACV leech. it only take 5-6 mins tops for a mystic. you can also gather materials for crafting or just plain selling it.

that's if you have the TIME and PATIENCE to do it.

why so serious?

Kinetik07

Rank 2
Kinetik07
Joined
04 Feb 2010
Posts
663
Location
United States
PostedDec 13, 2012 3:30 pm
If the price is still 2.6k by next week, I'll do everyone a favor and use the stones I get to adjust the price myself and still get a decent profit.

PlaguedTitan

Rank 1
PlaguedTitan
Joined
04 Apr 2010
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210
Location
Newcastle Australia
PostedDec 17, 2012 11:29 am
Kinetik07 wrote:
If the price is still 2.6k by next week, I'll do everyone a favor and use the stones I get to adjust the price myself and still get a decent profit.  


unfortunaly these days if we were to take another atempt to lower price by getting 100+ of those stones and selling at 1k each people would just buy them up and resell for the current price so really there isnt much option in trying to lower price cause using yourself will just lower quantity available there for keeping the prices high.

TheDiseased2

Rank 5
TheDiseased2
Joined
26 Mar 2010
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3446
Location
Eating all your cookies in NSW, Australia
PostedDec 17, 2012 4:45 pm
What you need to do is save up a couple of thousand of them and rather than sell them all at once stagger them off by selling a hundred or so at a time because if someone sees a reduced price item in the AH they will jump to make a profit (be it reselling or by saving gold). Only by consistantly offering lower price items will people accept a new price and hence people will begin selling their stones in order to compete with yours, however there will be people who will still OP the stones but people will be much less inclined to buy them.

silentplayer1

Rank 2
silentplayer1
Joined
19 Jun 2010
Posts
627
Location
San Fransisco United States
PostedDec 17, 2012 11:49 pm
Make growth variants cheaper, make everything cheaper, yay :3

- Traizo 7x Archmage/iMarz 4x Wizard -

PlaguedTitan

Rank 1
PlaguedTitan
Joined
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Location
Newcastle Australia
PostedDec 18, 2012 1:17 am
TheDiseased2 wrote:
What you need to do is save up a couple of thousand of them and rather than sell them all at once stagger them off by selling a hundred or so at a time because if someone sees a reduced price item in the AH they will jump to make a profit (be it reselling or by saving gold). Only by consistantly offering lower price items will people accept a new price and hence people will begin selling their stones in order to compete with yours, however there will be people who will still OP the stones but people will be much less inclined to buy them.  


but for this to be affective we still need the stones to be available more then once a week otherwise the stock will be depleted fairly quickly adn stone prices will rise again.
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